UPDATED Aug. 4, 2024, at 1:04 PM
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Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
KEY
ESTIMATE
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
| Dates | Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Sponsor | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Result |
President: general election, 2024AVG.
July30-Aug.2 | 3,092 | LV | July30-Aug.2 3,092LV | CBS News | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 47% Kennedy 2% West 0% Stein 0% Oliver 0% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
49% Harris 47% Trump 2% Kennedy 0% West 0% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July30-Aug.2 | 3,092 | LV | July30-Aug.2 3,092LV | CBS News | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
July 29-31 | 3,000 | RV | July 29-31 3,000RV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 42% Kennedy 6% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +5 | |||
47% Harris 42% Trump 6% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 27-30 | 1,434 | RV | July 27-30 1,434RV | The Economist | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 44% Kennedy 3% West 0% Stein 0% | 44% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
46% Harris 44% Trump 3% Kennedy 0% West 0% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 27-30 | 1,123 | RV | July 27-30 1,123RV | Daily Kos Daily Kos is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
July 29 | 1,750 | LV | July 29 1,750LV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 43% Kennedy 5% Oliver 0% Stein 0% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
45% Harris 43% Trump 5% Kennedy 0% Oliver 0% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 26-29 | 1,035 | LV | July 26-29 1,035LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
July 26-29 | 1,035 | LV | July 26-29 1,035LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 47% Kennedy 3% Stein 1% West 1% Oliver 0% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
46% Harris 47% Trump 3% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 24-29 | 1,000 | LV | July 24-29 1,000LV | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 46% Kennedy 10% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
44% Harris 46% Trump 10% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 24-29 | 1,000 | LV | July 24-29 1,000LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +3 | |||
July 23-29 | 1,000 | LV | July 23-29 1,000LV | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 42% Kennedy 8% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 42% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
41% Harris 42% Trump 8% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 23-29 | 1,000 | LV | July 23-29 1,000LV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
July 26-28 | 11,538 | RV | July 26-28 11,538RV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
July 26-28 | 786 | LV | July 26-28 786LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 41% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% | 41% | Trump | Harris | +7 | |||
48% Harris 41% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 876 | RV | July 26-28 876RV | Reuters | Harris | 43% | Harris | 43% | Harris 43% Trump 42% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
July 26-28 | 2,196 | RV | July 26-28 2,196RV | Harvard University Center for American Political Studies | Harris | 43% | Harris | 43% | Harris 43% Trump 47% Kennedy 8% Stein 1% West 1% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +4 | ||
43% Harris 47% Trump 8% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% West | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 2,196 | RV | July 26-28 2,196RV | Harvard University Center for American Political Studies | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 47% Kennedy 10% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +3 | ||
44% Harris 47% Trump 10% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 2,196 | RV | July 26-28 2,196RV | Harvard University Center for American Political Studies | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 52% | 52% | Trump | Trump | +4 | ||
July 26-28 | 2,919 | LV | July 26-28 2,919LV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 45% Kennedy 6% West 1% Oliver 1% Stein 1% | 45% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
44% Harris 45% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% West 1% Oliver 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 3,097 | RV | July 26-28 3,097RV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 43% | Harris | 43% | Harris 43% Trump 44% Kennedy 6% West 1% Oliver 1% Stein 1% | 44% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
43% Harris 44% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% West 1% Oliver 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 2,919 | LV | July 26-28 2,919LV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 46% Kennedy 6% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
46% Harris 46% Trump 6% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 3,097 | RV | July 26-28 3,097RV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 46% Kennedy 6% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
45% Harris 46% Trump 6% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 26-28 | 2,919 | LV | July 26-28 2,919LV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
July 26-28 | 3,097 | RV | July 26-28 3,097RV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
July 26-28 | 2,919 | LV | July 26-28 2,919LV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
July 26-28 | 3,097 | RV | July 26-28 3,097RV | Public Polling Project | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.
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Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
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Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Irena Li, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan, Geoffrey Skelley and Julia Wolfe contributed research. Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee.
